Canada: Downtrend in Housing Starts Confirmed in December Canadian housing starts largely unchanged at 177,300 units in December. R.I.P. residential construction boom, 2002-2008.
After falling from 212,000 units to an upwardly revised 178,000 units (from a preliminary 172,000) in November, we got confirmation this morning that housing starts have indeed embarked on a cyclical downtrend. In other words, that the drop recorded in November was not a kink in the data or dismissible as purely weather-related or sheer volatility, which monthly housing starts figures can be prone to exhibit, especially in the multiple-family unit segment. The year 2008 will have marked the seventh consecutive year where total housing starts where higher than 200,000 units. Residential construction activity had already turned the corner a while ago, however, and today’s data help confirm this. After running at a pace well below the rate of formation of new household for an entire decade (1991-2001), housing starts ramped up significantly starting in 2002 to satisfy pent-up demand from that previous decade. It is our view that this pent-up demand has been absorbed. Consequently, housing starts will, over the long-term, have to come in line closer to the latest estimate of household formation rates, roughly 175,000. R.I.P construction boom, 2002-2008.